Another Long Spring

  Today we tried going to the park, but the slightest hint of rain made us turn around. Head south, I said, hoping that leaving the convergence zone would lead us to drier pastures. It did not. A light shower dressed us in gloom again. My son fell asleep and my wife decided to go home. I asked her to drop me off so I could run home. In 45 minutes are running I did not feel a single drop.

 The spring here is a stubborn as a scrooge. Often the first blossoms will be in February, when temperatures creep into the 50s and 60s. We might get one or two heat waves in spring to break the pattern, but it stays this way the whole season through June, all the way into second week of July. The longest springs last until late July, which my wife finds incredulous.

 Yes, it happens, and this year is a textbook case. It can be dreary, cloudy, and rainy from October 1 to July 20. This year seemed to have a long fall in an even longer spring, which has the effect of making every season except summer blend into one another, so that there are only two seasons here: dreary and not dreary. When this happens, the locals call it Juneuary.

 There was a girl who moved up here from California when I was working as a night auditor. She mentioned how she couldn't wait for summer in what was March or sometime near. I said I hope you're good at waiting because winter can seem to last into July here. Her look of confusion was the same as my wife's. She never went back to California. It takes some getting used to the long stretches of cloudy days here. There have only been a handful of hot and sunny 4th of Julys in my life, which allows me to rest my case. We live in a land of eternal spring. Good thing it is my favorite season, and June is my favorite month.

Brown Eyes on Father's Day

You ran to me with a bag in your hands,
The oyster brown shells of your eyes
Alight with excitement, your friends delighted,
Fathers circling children, children circling you.
You hugged me unforced, ardently I surrendered:
Your hair smelling of candles, your smile transient
Like a star in transit behind the molten meteor
That graced you in a film about wishes.
You pulled out a hat you’d painted,
Placed it on the ephemeral temple of my head,
Joined me in a fervor remiss, that I had shamefully
Ejected from a premonition:
That I would have left you alone there,
For my own comfort, my own disgrace.

Eyes can’t look at you any more sweetly
Than when you look into mine.

Article Review: Modelling Dunes from Lençóis Maranhenses National Park (Brazil):

Summary

Lencois Maranhenses National Park is an area of otherworldly dunes and lagoons on the northeast coast of Brazil. The goal of the research problem in this article is to create a digital elevation model (DEM) that can provide information on the dynamics of dune formation in the park. The research attempts to answer how the dunes are advancing and retracting, and whether there could be significant erosion happening.

This is an important question to answer because coastal dunes protect against sea-level rise.  Being vulnerable to natural and human disturbances, they are also important for conservation efforts.  DEMs can be helpful in identifying risk areas, studying land use, monitoring sea-level rise, and for analyzing the dynamics of areas under the influence of human activity.

The procedure involved three phases: data acquisition, data processing, and DEM creation.  Landsat images were retrieved from USGS to determine ideal places for marking and surveying.  Geodetic marks were placed at intervals on the dunes where altimetric surveys would be performed to collect data.  Data processing was carried out by software that determined statistically significant changes in the dune surfaces.  A DEM was generated using the triangulated irregular network (TIN) technique in ArcGIS.  A total of 1,010 and 1,700 sampling points with irregular distribution were gathered for the data at two different dates to monitor the changes. The use of Landsat images and ArcGIS tools are highly reliable for the processing of spatial data because they minimize the potential for human error.

The researchers found that there was a decrease in sediment volume on the dunes from 2015 to 2017, with dune migration going in the NE-SW direction. Using the software, they found “erosion on the order of 61.43071 m³ ± 2.5 cm.”  This is an alarming finding that with more research could indicate the dunes are receding.

 

Review

Variables in the article were operationally defined, and there were many cited references. Overall, it was a comprehensive article, but there were several shortcomings.  No educational significance of the problem was discussed, though further research was recommended.  Further education would help more people become aware of why dune erosion and migration is important.  For instance, it was unclear how the geology of the area created these dunes in the first place, or if there was an ecosystem being impacted.  Also, previous studies on dunes in the area were mentioned, but they were not explained.  More background information like this would help to educate people and make the issue more comprehensive for readers.

            There wasn’t a specific hypothesis that the research intended to prove or disprove.  Rather, it only sought to the answer the questions of dune erosion and migration.  No expected relationship between the variables was anticipated.  The main point seemed to be that the DEM method is better than older methods involving fieldwork.

            The size of the sample population was described with only one major characteristic: that the area chosen had the largest dunes in Lencois Maranhenses.  The reader is left to assume this is the only reason the study area was selected.  Then, the sample selection method was vaguely described as “irregular”.  The reader is left wondering if the sample points were random or methodically irregular.  Having a large sample size (over 1,000) does provide for a strong DEM, but it would have been helpful to understand how they were selected.

            A more appropriate description of the instruments used was needed.  The researchers used the Global Navigational Satellite System GNSS in their procedure, but it isn’t clear how.  Even the sections describing DEM methods in ArcGIS were not descriptive enough to fully understand how the model mapped dune migration.  It seemed like the article was only written for people with advanced knowledge of this software.

            The design seemed appropriate to answer the research questions; DEMs are in high demand for monitoring environmental changes like this.  However, I don’t believe the procedures were described in enough detail for the research to be replicated, especially for someone new to the field, like a student.

            Statistics were presented in the results, but without charts or graphs, it made them hard to interpret.  The only table presented showed survey parameters- nothing about the results.  No description of probability, confidence interval, or test of significance was described, even though it was stated earlier that the software uses statistics.  A point cloud was used to show dune migration in one figure, while a figure for the DEM was presented to illustrate the average changes in altitude that were calculated.  The data for these figures were described well in the text, in what I believe is the strongest part of the article.

            The researchers were also strong in reporting the results, which answered the questions they posed at the beginning.  They made a strong case for future researchers to use the DEM method instead of conventional ones involving theodolites, levels, and stations systems.  DEM is a much cheaper and more accurate method than these older ones; plus, it saves the researcher time but not having to go to the dunes and do a physical survey.

            One weakness of the conclusion is that the results from previous studies were not mentioned, making it impossible to compare these results without having the reader do more research.  A strength of the conclusion was that recommendations for future research were made.  To better understand sediment dynamics and dune evolution in Lencois Marenhenses, it is important to continue monitoring changes using DEM surveys.  This is especially important since dunes, being made of sand, can erode and migrate faster than other landforms.  And while it isn’t stated in the article and may not seem essential to conservation, preserving one of the most beautiful places on earth should be reason enough to keep these studies going.

Cancer in My Family

Here is a brief history of cancer on my mother’s side of the family. 
 
Her father Edward died in 1986 from lymphoma at a relatively young age.  He was about 55-60.  His son Eddie, my uncle, died at the very young age of 42 from colon cancer, in 2002.  To my knowledge, he did not exercise or consciously eat healthy.  His sister, my aunt Kathy, died seven years later from stomach cancer.  She was only 53.  She also did not exercise and may have had a poor diet.  All three of them were smokers, but I believe Eddie and Kathy had quit before getting cancer.
 
There is not as much evidence for a genetic basis of cancer as people believe.  Others in my family have smoked far more, and some have worse diets.  (One had horrible constipation for years, another suffers from heart disease, which is generally more related to diet than cancer).  My own mother smoked for 20-30 years and binged on sweets for an even longer period.  She did have some polyps removed from her colon a few years ago, however, as I learned recently, cancer is pervasive in every single living body.  The immune system is constantly fighting off rogue cells that want to be individuals in even the healthiest of people.  Sweets or smoking may have been the culprit in my mom’s polyps- sweets more likely, since smoking is more highly associated with lung cancer.  She seems to be eating less sweets since having them removed.
 
Otherwise, several in my family have shown absolutely no signs of cancer, including Julie, Mary, and the twins.
 
Statistically I don’t believe there is enough evidence to remove randomness from the cause of these people in our family dying from cancer, though it is surprising that all three were young.  Perhaps there was a carcinogen (other than smoking) that all three were exposed to earlier in their lives, having lived under the same roof. 
 
I’m not going to worry too much about “inheriting” this disease and I hope my children won’t either.  The biggest risk factors for cancer are: smoking, alcohol, obesity, carcinogens, UV rays, physical inactivity and diet (excessive red meat, low fiber).  All three of my family members ate red meat and probably did not eat enough fiber.  As long as we are following these healthy life habits, there is nothing to worry about.
 
PS: I’ve read that cancers feed off glucose, so excess carbs and sugar should be avoided, but not if one is exercising a lot.  Intuitively, I still believe the best way to deal with a cancer diagnose is to start fasting, immediately.  Starve the cancer of the glucose it needs.

Family Bible

  Today my mom gave me the family Bible she inherited from my grandma. It was on my request. This Bible is special for a few reasons. It was given to my grandma by my grandpa for her birthday in 1956. Sometimes I would browse through it on those Sunday dinners at her house, not understanding any of it but marvelling at its pictures. And that is the amazing thing about it; my favorite aspect- many religious paintings by the masters are on display throughout. Whole sections are devoted to the paintings, so it is not a typical Bible that just has words. It's also unique in that it is sanctioned by the Pope, forcing a Catholic spin on it which sort of aggravates me. But anyway, the family name is on it, printed just for the ‐----. And I am the only ----- out of all of them who will pass down the name, skipping a whole generation of seven children. I was lucky it landed in my mom's hands, who was oddly the least religious out of all of them. In a sense I feel blessed. This book made me feel inexpressible things when I was very young. Merely looking at it made me feel holy, like I was born from a highly sanctified place in heaven where I will return after I'm dead. It has a certain magic, a power that only seems to have spoken to me.