Friday, December 9, 2022

Russia's Geopolitical Strategy: Cold War in the Arctic

    There is at least one country that probably doesn't mind the acceleration of global warming: that is Russia.  In fact, they might be actively trying to speed it up.  As one of the world's top oil producers, drilling in the Arctic not only extracts more oil for CO2 emitting vehicles, but exacerbates methane emissions, where it is notoriously abundant.  Russian drilling in the Arctic seems to be the greatest single threat of any country to solving the warming crisis.
    You might think they they are only doing it for money, and you may be right.  Many countries have exploited regions only to improve their economy.  But as geopolitical strategy, warming the Arctic poses a highly convenient opportunity for Russia.  They have already claimed much of it via exploration and deep-sea submersion, but for what reason?
    The Russians correctly predicted the warming of the Arctic would open pathways of transportation that would benefit the country who "ruled" it.  It's already happening, as major cargo ships have been traveling through since 2014*.  The Arctic gives Russia a new front from which to expand and find economic advantages.  Full control of the Arctic also gives them more leverage when dealing with Europe and North America in war or policy issues.
 
     
 Source: American Geophysical Union
 
    From this perspective, the war in Ukraine makes more sense.  They needed better access to the Mediterranean due to the limitations of their geography.  There is not a major sea route from which they can deploy a navy, much less control shipping lanes like any powerful economy needs.  The invasion of Ukraine was a geopolitical maneuver that was meant to give them breathing room in the south, which would complement their expansion in the north by being able to "wrap around" Europe.  If Russia controlled half of Europe's perimeter- terrestrially and aquatically- NATO would be significantly weaker.
    Such a realist approach to international affairs is nauseating in our time.  By international law, nobody can claim underwater territory outside 300km from their shore, but the Russians want to do it anyway.  The justification is that as more ice melts, there will be more access to land, underwater or not.  It is yet another facet of this eternal "cold" war with NATO, this time in the most geographically appropriate place.

*Marshall Tim. 2016. Prisoners of Geography : Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World. First Scribner paperback ed. New York NY: Scribner.

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